Umbiko omusha wenethiwekhi yenqubomgomo yamandla avuselelekayo i-REN21 enabambiqhaza abaningi okhishwe kuleli sonto uthola ukuthi iningi lochwepheshe bomhlaba wonke kwezamandla banethemba lokuthi umhlaba ungadlulela ku-100% wamandla avuselelekayo wekusasa maphakathi nekhulunyaka.
Kodwa-ke, ukuzethemba kokuthi lolu shintsho lungaba nokwenzeka luyantengantenga ukusuka esifundeni ukuya kwesinye, futhi kunenkolelo ecishe ifinyelele umhlaba wonke yokuthi imikhakha efana nezokuthutha inokuthile okumele ikwenze uma ikusasa labo lizohlanzeka ngo-100%.
Lo mbiko, onesihloko esithi REN21 Renewables Global Futures, ubeke izihloko zenkulumompikiswano eziyi-12 kochwepheshe bamandla abadumile abayi-114 abathathwe kuwo wonke amagumbi amane omhlaba. Inhloso bekuwukubhebhethekisa nokuvusa impikiswano mayelana nezinselelo ezibalulekile ezibhekene namandla avuselelekayo, futhi bekucophelela ukufaka abangabaza amandla avuselelekayo njengengxenye yalabo abahlolwa.
Azikho izibikezelo noma ukuqagela okwenziwe; kunalokho, izimpendulo nemibono yochwepheshe yaqoqwa ukuze kwakhiwe isithombe esihambisanayo sokuthi abantu bakholelwa ukuthi ikusasa lamandla liphokophele kuphi. Impendulo ephawuleka kakhulu kube yileyo etholwe Embuzweni 1: "100% evuselelekayo - umphumela ophusile weSivumelwano saseParis?" Kulokhu, ngaphezu kwe-70% yabaphenduli bakholelwa ukuthi umhlaba unganikwa amandla angu-100% amandla avuselelekayo ngo-2050, ochwepheshe baseYurophu nase-Australia basekela kakhulu lo mbono.
Ngokuvamile kube "nokuvumelana okukhulu" kokuthi okuvuselelekayo kuzobusa umkhakha wamandla, ochwepheshe bephawula ukuthi ngisho nezinkampani ezinkulu zamazwe ngamazwe manje ziya ngokuya zikhetha imikhiqizo yamandla avuselelekayo noma ezinsizeni zokutshala izimali ngqo.
Cishe i-70% yochwepheshe okwaxoxwa nabo babeqiniseka ukuthi izindleko zokuvuselelwa zizoqhubeka nokuwa, futhi zizokwehlisa kalula izindleko zawo wonke amafutha emfucumfucu ngo-2027. Ngokulinganayo, iningi liyaqiniseka ukuthi ukukhula kwe-GDP kungahlukaniswa ekukhuleni kokusetshenziswa kwamandla, kanye namazwe. ehlukahlukene njengoba iDenmark neChina ibalule njengezibonelo zamazwe akwazile ukwehlisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kodwa asajabulela ukukhula komnotho.
Izinselelo ezinkulu ezikhonjiwe
Ukulindela okuhle ngekusasa elihlanzekile phakathi kwalabo chwepheshe abayi-114 kwathonywa ukunikezwa okujwayelekile kokuzithiba, ikakhulukazi kwamanye amazwi e-Japan, e-US nase-Afrika lapho ukungabaza mayelana nekhono lalezi zifunda lokusebenza ngokugcwele ku-100% wamandla avuselelekayo kwakugcwele. Ikakhulukazi, izintshisekelo ezinikezwe imboni yamandla evamile ziphawulwe njengezithiyo ezinzima neziyizithiyo ekuthathweni kwamandla ahlanzekile kabanzi.
Mayelana nezokuthutha, “ushintsho lwendlela” luyadingeka ukuze kuguqulwe ngokugcwele umkhondo wamandla ahlanzekile kulowo mkhakha, kutholwe umbiko. Ukushintshwa kwezinjini ezivuthayo kufakwe amadrayivu kagesi ngeke kwanele ukuguqula lo mkhakha, iningi lochwepheshe likholelwa ukuthi, kanti ukwamukeleka okubanzi kwezokuthutha ezisekelwe kuloliwe kunezomgwaqo kuzoba nomthelela obanzi. Nokho, bambalwa abakholelwa ukuthi lokhu kungenzeka.
Futhi njengakuqala, ochwepheshe abaningi bebegxeka ohulumeni abahlulekile ukuletha isiqiniseko senqubomgomo yesikhathi eside sokutshalwa kwezimali okuvuselelekayo - ukwehluleka kobuholi okubonakala kude nase-UK nase-US, ukuya e-Afrika eseningizimu yeSahara naseNingizimu Melika.
"Lo mbiko wethula imibono eminingi yochwepheshe, futhi uhloselwe ukuvusa izingxoxo kanye nenkulumo-mpikiswano mayelana kokubili amathuba nezinselele zokufinyelela ikusasa lamandla avuselelekayo angu-100% maphakathi nekhulu leminyaka," kusho unobhala omkhulu we-REN21 uChristine Lins. “Ukucabanga okufisayo ngeke kusifikise lapho; kuphela ngokuziqonda ngokugcwele izinselele nokubamba iqhaza engxoxweni enolwazi mayelana nokuthi zingazinqoba kanjani, ohulumeni bangakwazi ukuthatha izinqubomgomo ezifanele kanye nezisusa zezezimali ukuze kusheshiswe ijubane lokuthumela.
Usihlalo we-REN21 u-Arthouros Zervos wengeze ngokuthi bambalwa ababekholelwa emuva ngo-2004 (ngenkathi i-REN21 isungulwa) ukuthi ngo-2016 amandla avuselelekayo azothatha ama-86% akho konke ukufakwa kwamandla okusha kwe-EU, noma ukuthi i-China izoba amandla ahlanzekile ahamba phambili emhlabeni. "Izingcingo-ke zokuthola amandla avuselelekayo angu-100% azizange zithathwe ngokungathi sína," kusho uZervos. "Namuhla, ochwepheshe bezamandla abahamba phambili emhlabeni babambe iqhaza ezingxoxweni ezinengqondo mayelana nokwenzeka kwawo, futhi ngasiphi isikhathi."
Okutholakele okwengeziwe
'Izinkulumo-mpikiswano eziyi-12' zombiko zithinte izihloko eziningi, ikakhulukazi ezibuza ngekusasa lamandla avuselelekayo angu-100%, kodwa futhi nalokhu okulandelayo: isidingo samandla emhlabeni wonke kanye nokonga kwamandla kungahambisana kanjani kangcono; ingabe 'owinile uthatha konke' uma kuziwa ekukhiqizeni ugesi ovuselelekayo; ingabe ukufudumeza kukagesi kuzodlula okushisayo; ukuthi izimoto zikagesi zizofuna isabelo esingakanani semakethe; isitoreji siyimbangi noma umsekeli wegridi yamandla; amathuba amadolobha amakhulu, kanye nekhono lokuvuselelekayo lokuthuthukisa ukufinyelela kwamandla kubo bonke.
Ochwepheshe abavotwe abangu-114 bathathwe emhlabeni wonke, futhi umbiko we-REN21 wahlanganisa izimpendulo zabo ezimaphakathi ngokwezifunda. Nansi indlela ochwepheshe besifunda ngasinye abaphendule ngayo:
●E-Afrika, ukuvumelana okusobala kakhulu kwakuwukuthi inkulumo-mpikiswano yokutholakala kwamandla isasibekela impikiswano engu-100% yamandla avuselelekayo.
●E-Australia nase-Oceania okwathathwa okubalulekile kwaba ukuthi kukhona okulindelwe okuphezulu kokuvuselelekayo okungu-100%.
●Ochwepheshe baseShayina bakholelwa ukuthi ezinye izifunda zaseShayina zingakwazi ukuzuza okuvuselelekayo okungu-100%, kodwa bakholelwa ukuthi lena inhloso yokuvelela ngokweqile emhlabeni jikelele.
● Okukhathaza kakhulu i-Europe ukuqinisekisa ukwesekwa okuqinile kokuvuselelekayo okungu-100% ukulwa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.
●E-India, impikiswano engu-100% yokuvuselelwa kabusha isaqhubeka, kanti ingxenye yalabo abavotwayo ikholelwa ukuthi okuhlosiwe ngeke kwenzeke ngo-2050.
● Esifundeni sase-Latam, impikiswano mayelana no-100% ovuselelekayo ayikaqali, nezindaba ezicindezela kakhulu ezisetafuleni njengamanje.
● Izingqinamba zasemkhathini zaseJapan zehlisa okulindelekile mayelana nokwenzeka kokuvuselelwa kabusha okungu-100%, kusho ochwepheshe ezweni.
● E-US kunokungabaza okunamandla mayelana ne-100% evuselelekayo ngochwepheshe ababili kuphela kwabayisishiyagalombili abaqinisekayo ukuthi kungenzeka.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jun-03-2019